terça-feira, 1 de janeiro de 2008

Adeus 2007, olá 2008!

Sem grandes considerações, porque a digestão de tanto doce dos últimos dias nos rouba disponibilidade verbal, aqui fica a lista das Boas Ideias para 2007.

Realizadas:
Abertura do Centro de Saúde
Comparência da SGAL nas assembleias de condomínio
Entrega das chaves do novo Bairro de Calvanas
Mais árvores na Alta de Lisboa
Reabertura da Quinta dos Lilazes

Não realizadas:
Desbloquear Armazéns Ruela
Edifícios amigos do ambiente
Informação actualizada no site da SGAL
Metro na Alta de Lisboa
Passadeira na R. Helena Vaz da Silva
Requalificação do Parque Oeste
Início da construção da Malha 6

Em realização:
Eixo Central
Eixo pedonal

Esta ideia das Boas Ideias para 2007 não correu como esperávamos. Havia muito mais coisas a dizer, para todos os lados. Ficou portanto no amarelo, também. Mas 2008 é um ano bissexto, teremos mais um dia para realizar tudo o que nos proposermos. E aqui a redacção está cheia de boas ideias para apresentar aos leitores muito em breve. Contamos convosco para as concretizar.

Bom ano de 2008!

9 comentários:

Anónimo disse...

Tiago a "purga" comecou!
As vezes tenho a sensacao que os nossos governantes nem sempre sao cegos ou surdos as nossas sugestoes.
http://ultimahora.publico.clix.pt/noticia.aspx?id=1315525&idCanal=12

Sempre gostei do Antonio Costa, mas agora esta a melhorar

Anónimo disse...

Entrevista a José Fortunato (MSF Tur.Im) no Publico Imobiliario:
"Como é que correu o ano para a
MSF Tur.Im?
2007 foi o segundo ano da vida da
MSF Tur.Im. Depois de um ano em
que fizemos algumas aquisições
neste exercício começámos a
trabalhar no terreno. Os projectos
da MSF Tur.Im que estiveram em
comercialização em 2007 foram
todos residenciais. O projecto Casas
do Parque, na Alta de Lisboa, foi
aprovado no final do ano, estando
reservadas a totalidade das fracções
de um dos quatro blocos. As vendas
a clientes finais iniciar-se-ão em
Março de 2008 e as perspectivas
são altamente positivas. A abertura
do último troço do eixo Norte-Sul,
a par dos elevados investimentos
em infra-estruturas verdes, estão a
gerar uma forte procura, prevendo-
se uma grande valorização desta localização nos próximos três anos (...) No que respeita à actividade
imobiliária, esperamos que no
segmento habitacional em Lisboa os
sinais de retoma, que constatamos
no forte interesse no projecto Casas
do Parque, se mantenham."

Para alem do "wishful thinking", nao percebo como pode existir um "forte interesse no Projecto Casas do Parque" se as vendas aos clientes finais so vao comecar em Marco de 2008.

Ja alguem viu a versao final deste projecto?

PD

Anónimo disse...

Mais do que a utopia em pensar que será este o empreendimento que irá trazer uma nova vida ao projecto da Alta, preocupa-me o facto de, antes mesmo de ter sido colocado à venda, estão já "reservadas a totalidade das fracções de um dos quatro blocos".

Reservadas?! Para quem e para que efeito?
É só "banha da cobra" para tentar mostrar que existe algum interesse no empreendimento, ou será já a lógica da reserva para "casas a custos controlados"??

Pedro Veiga disse...

Não liguem a essas notícias! Nada disso tem fundamento. As dificuldades continuam dada a situação económica que estamos a atravessar. Com os preços das matérias primas a subir em flecha, com o aumento das taxas de juro e com o aumento dos impostos dificilmente haverá retoma no mercado imobiliário tão cedo.
A bolha da especulação imobiliária já rebentou nos Estados Unidos e está a chegar à Europa. Portugal é um dos países mais vulneráveis dado peso que tem o crédito imobiliário na nossa economia.
O que nos resta? Se quisermos viver aqui temos que apertar bem o cinto, cortar nas despesas e evitar desperdícios. Para quem tiver possibilidade e sorte que invista em negócios especulativos porque o rendimento do trabalho jamais voltará a ser o que era nos últimos anos do século XX.

Anónimo disse...

acho bem que se critique qd é necessário, principalmente junto das entidades com responsabilidades, mas...
vocês querem ver que o mercado acabou! que nada do que existiu a até agora voltará a existir! que mais ninguém vai comprar casa ou qq outro bem de consumo nas próximas décadas! quer isto dizer que todas as empresas que comercializam produtos com PVP superior a meia dúzia de euros vão deixar de actuar na nossa sociedade!
Seria de facto catastrófico. O que entendo é que o consumidor está cada vez mais exigente e procura produtos com qualidade. Provavelmente não comprará casa a pensar vender com mais valias em 3 anos, mas sim por pensar em investimento a longo prazo (investimento não só económico-financeiro, mas fundamentalmente na qualidade de vida). De facto a zona tem sofrido atrasos, mas estamos no bom caminho. As obras em curso e as futuras, que aliás cumprem com o projecto inicial (necessário não esquecer que em muitas urbanizações não é respeitado) vão dar-lhe nova vida. Não vale a pena derrotarmos o projecto em que apostámos. Vamos usá-lo. Vamos mostrar aos amigos e conhecidos que vale a pena a Alta, sem deixar de criticar o que está mal. Aproveitemos todas as oportunidades para dignificar o projecto, pois ele agora também é nosso. Se aparece uma notícia dizendo que a Alta é um excelente local e com potencial de valorização, o que até não é difícil de entender, porque é que vamos contrariar, o que ganho com isso, protagonismo?

Anónimo disse...

sobre as taxas de juro
As Inflation 
Creeps, ECB 
Faces Dilemma
By NINA KOEPPEN in Frankfurt and EMMA CHARLTON in London
January 4, 2008; Page A5
Hundred-dollar-a-barrel oil and record money-supply growth are making it harder for the European Central Bank to use interest rates to stimulate Europe's economy in the face of falling global demand for goods and services.
Since summer, when the credit crisis prompted the ECB to shelve its policy of steadily raising interest rates, the bank has watched anxiously as inflation pressures built in the euro zone. The latest warning sign came yesterday when the ECB reported that the rolling three-month average of the annual growth rates of M3, the bank's broad money-supply measure, was 11.9% in the September-November period, compared with 11.7% in August to October. M3 measures the amount of cash and other forms of liquidity in circulation in the euro zone, and strong M3 growth implies strong demand and inflation.
Also yesterday, Germany reported that its seasonally adjusted unemployment dropped 78,000 last month to 8.4%, sharply more than predicted. A tightening labor market can create higher wage demands.
For the ECB, these trends could make it hard to steer inflation down to its goal of less than 2% without driving up interest rates and putting a further crimp on growth. The annual rate of inflation in the euro zone is expected to have been 3.1% for December, with the data set for release today. That is the same rate as in November and the highest since May 2001.
"Continued double-digit money supply and bank-lending growth rates are clearly an obstacle to lower ECB policy rates," said BNP Paribas chief euro-zone economist Ken Wattret.
The ECB also worries that sharp rises in food and energy prices will turn into broader inflation once producers transfer higher costs to consumers.
Yesterday, crude-oil futures crossed the $100 mark, hitting an intraday $100.09 in New York trading. As companies look to reflect higher oil costs in their pricing, they push prices up, creating so-called second-round inflation effects. Swiss chemicals maker Clariant AG, for example, said Monday it will raise prices 5% to 12% to compensate for rising raw-material and energy costs.
A number of European gas and electricity providers, including Germany's RWE AG and the United Kingdom's largest gas supplier, Centrica PLC, have said customer bills will have to rise to reflect wholesale energy costs. Price increases ultimately constrain consumer purchasing power, likely leading to declines in spending and sentiment and contributing to calls for increased wages, economists say.

That is something the ECB has consistently warned about, cautioning that, despite concerns about falling growth, it is willing to act pre-emptively to prevent higher energy prices from boosting wages and prices for other consumer goods.
The new ECB governor, Athanasios Orphanides of Cyprus, said in an interview with Germany's Handelsblatt newspaper published yesterday that he considers the ECB's staff inflation projections from last month too optimistic. The forecasts were "based on the premise that the recent price rises in oil, commodities and food won't lead to second-round effects," he was quoted as saying. The ECB staff forecast that inflation this year will range from 2% to 3%.
But with credit markets still in the grip of the U.S. subprime-debt crisis, the ECB is unlikely to raise interest rates immediately, economists say. This, in addition to early signs of slowing economies in parts of Europe, suggests the ECB is likely to keep the key policy rate at 4% at its Jan. 10 meeting.
--Geir Moulson in Berlin contributed to this article.

Anónimo disse...

sobre o "oil peak', tambem do WSJ
Oil and the Dollar
January 4, 2008; Page A10
Oil prices finally hit $100 a barrel this week, albeit briefly, but breaking through that symbolic barrier is ominous and higher gasoline prices are sure to follow. Supply disruptions in various places and surging demand in China and India are part of the explanation for this decade's upward trend in oil prices. But perhaps the biggest factor has been largely overlooked: the decline in the value of the dollar.

Since 2001 the dollar price of oil and gold have run in almost perfect tandem (see nearby chart). The gold price has risen 239% since 2001, while the oil price has risen 267%. This means that if the dollar had remained "as good as gold" since 2001, oil today would be selling at about $30 a barrel, not $99. Gold has traditionally been a rough proxy for the price level, so the decline of the dollar against gold and oil suggests a U.S. monetary that is supplying too many dollars.

We would add that the dollar price of nearly all commodities -- from wheat to corn to copper to silver -- are also surging, a further sign of a weakening currency. On Wednesday alone the price of wheat and soybeans increased 3.4% and 2.8%, respectively. That follows a 75% increase in their price in 2007 -- which ran ahead of the oil price, which gained a mere 57% for the year. Neither OPEC nor China caused food commodity prices to rise like this. The main culprit here is a global loss of confidence in Federal Reserve policy and the dollar.

This state of affairs is all too similar to what happened in the commodity markets in the 1970s -- particularly the energy markets. Oil price spikes in that stagflationary decade were driven less by OPEC than by the weak-dollar policies pursued by the Fed. Gold in that decade broke from its traditional $35 an ounce mooring and climbed as high as $850 in 1980, before Paul Volcker began to restore the Fed's credibility.

Another way to consider the impact of the weak dollar is to examine what would have happened if the dollar had simply kept pace with the euro in this decade. What would oil cost today? Not $100, but closer to $57 a barrel. The nearby chart gives a sense of the comparative trend since 2000.

A weak dollar has been trumpeted in the business media and especially among manufacturers as a strategy to lower the trade deficit. But this strategy makes imported oil a lot more expensive. The trade figures reveal that a major contributor to the rising trade deficit over this decade has been the high cost of oil imports. We don't worry about the trade deficit -- except in so far as it inspires protectionism -- but those who do might want to consider that the weak dollar policy they are cheering is making fuel very expensive.

We aren't saying that supply problems and an increase in relative demand haven't played a role in oil's rise. Cambridge Energy Research Associates estimates that "aggregate supply disruptions" reduced oil supply by almost two million barrels a day in late 2007, which isn't helping prices. But the high price of oil is not a vindication of theorists who say we are confronting "peak oil."

A report issued this summer by the National Petroleum Council and energy experts across the spectrum concluded that "the world is not running out of energy resources," though it conceded that "there are accumulating risks to continuing expansion of oil and natural gas production from the conventional sources." Daniel Yergin of Cambridge Energy notes that in the energy markets "most of these risks are above ground, not below ground." By that he's referring to the tendency of politicians to intervene in the energy markets in any number of harmful ways. We'd offer barriers to drilling in Alaska and on the Continental Shelf as Exhibit A and B in this country.

Rising oil prices act like a tax on American consumers. With the economy slowing, the Fed is now under intense pressure to cut interest rates to stimulate the economy and provide liquidity to the banking industry. But if this causes the dollar to continue to weaken, the tax of higher commodity prices will offset much of the "stimulus" from looser money. The Fed will get a lot less bang for its easier buck.

The larger danger here, as we've been warning for some time, is that the U.S. seems to be returning to the Carter-era economic policy mix of tight fiscal policy (tax increases) and easy money. Add barriers to oil and natural gas production and you have a recipe for higher oil prices and slower growth. In a word, for stagflation. The Reagan-Volcker policy mix of the 1980s changed all that, but maybe we have to relearn the hard way every generation or so what works -- and what produces $100 oil.

Pedro Veiga disse...

De facto podemos fazer muitas contas como os economistas gostam. Mas o que é certo é que muitas das mais importantes zonas de extracção de petróleo estão em declínio devido às condicionantes geológicas. O "peak oil" é uma teoria que tem uma base científica sólida e se o mundo não explorar outras fontes de energia, e se não se adaptar a viver com menos desperdício o "peak oil" vai mesmo afectar a estabilidade das nações mundiais.

Anónimo disse...

eu já reservei e dei um bom sinal... e é verdade... já estão reservadas!!!